Unveiling the Reality Behind the Philippine PSEi 30’s 7,000: Market Concentration, Divergence, Manipulations, and the Overton Window

 

What's been lost in this frenzied competition for eyeballs and "likes" is the distinction between opinion and journalism. The post-truth cliche is that there is no distinction, that everything is mere opinion and spin, but this is not true: journalism is different from opinion and spin—Charles Hugh Smith 

In this issue

Unveiling the Reality Behind the Philippine PSEi 30’s 7,000: Market Concentration, Divergence, Manipulations, and the Overton Window

I. The PSEi 30 Closes Above 7,000: Is This a "Historic Moment?"

II. Foreign Inflows Targeted at Biggest Market Cap Issues, Historically Chasing Tops

III. PSEi 30 7,000: Primarily an ICTSI Show; Diverging PSEi 30 and Market Breadth

IV. PSEi 30 Rose to 7,000 on Depressed and Concentrated Volume

V. Why Ignore the Impact of the Flagrant Manipulations of the PSEi 30?

VI. The Unannounced "Historic Moments" 

Unveiling the Reality Behind the Philippine PSEi 30’s 7,000: Market Concentration, Divergence, Manipulations, and the Overton Window 

I. The PSEi 30 Closes Above 7,000: Is This a "Historic Moment?" 

Along with the region's sanguine performance, the Philippine PSEi 30 broke past 7,000. Could this signify the start of a bull market, as the media and consensus have suggested?

Figure 1

Businessworld, September 13: The PSEi achieved a significant milestone, closing above 7,000 for the first time in over 19 months. Strong foreign buying and expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut contributed to this historic moment. (Figure 1, upper picture) 

Historic. Moment. 

Sure, the PSEi 30 has traded above 7,000 for the last five days and closed above this threshold in the last two. However, how is reaching a 19-month high equivalent to a "historic moment?" 

Media is said to reflect the prevailing mood or express the public’s level of confidence. That’s according to the practitioners of ‘Socionomics.’ 

Could this headline be indicative of the market’s mood? 

Let’s examine public sentiment by analyzing the market internals. 

II. Foreign Inflows Targeted at Biggest Market Cap Issues, Historically Chasing Tops 

Foreign buying was certainly a factor. 

This week, aggregate net foreign inflows amounted to Php 2.7 billion, marking the fifth consecutive week of net buying and the second-largest inflow during this period. (Figure 1, lower diagram) 

However, foreign inflows accounted for only 41.44% of the average weekly turnover, the lowest in five weeks. 

This suggests that local investors have begun to dominate the transactions on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE). 

Additionally, the scale of weekly foreign investment was far from record-breaking.

As a side note, in today’s digitally connected, "globalization-financialization" world, foreign inflows could also include funds from offshore subsidiaries or affiliates of local firms.

Figure 2

Sure, expectations of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have not only fueled a strong rebound in ASEAN currencies but have also energized speculative melt-up dynamics in the region's equity markets, driven by foreign players. 

ASEAN currencies outperformed the global market from July 10 (following the US CPI release) through September 11. (Figure 2, topmost table) 

Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg, September 12: Southeast Asian equities have cemented their position as a favorite play of money managers positioning for the Federal Reserve’s policy pivot. Four of the five best-performing Asian equity benchmarks this month are from the region, with Thailand leading the pack. The buying frenzy has put foreign inflows on track for a fifth consecutive week while the MSCI Asean Index is now trading near its highest level since April 2022. [bold added] (Figure 2, lowest chart) 

Moreover, the yield-chasing phenomenon has spilled over into the worst-performing equities, or the laggards of the region. 

Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg, September 12: After being sidelined by investors for much of this year, some smaller equity markets are suddenly winning favor. The trend is particularly evident in Asia, where Thailand, Singapore and New Zealand rank as the top performers in September. Their benchmarks have risen at least 3% each so far, even as MSCI Inc.’s gauge of global stocks has fallen about 1% following a four-month winning streak. Investor focus seems to be shifting as the world’s biggest equity markets such as the US, Japan and India take a breather, and China’s slump deepens. For many of the smaller Asian markets, a limited exposure to the artificial intelligence theme means their valuations aren’t expensive, making them attractive just as the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot helps boost their currencies and allows some central banks to embark on rate cuts. [bold added] 

The "core to the periphery" phase indicates that investors have been pursuing yields in less developed and less liquid markets, which are inherently more volatile and considered higher risk. This shift could signify a late-cycle transition. 

So yes, while there may be a semblance of increased confidence due to foreign participation, this dynamic appears to be limited to the most liquid and largest market capitalization issues—those capable of absorbing significant trading volumes.

And that’s exactly the case. Except for last week’s drop to 81%, the percentage share of the 20 most traded issues relative to the main board volume has risen in tandem with the PSEi 30 since mid-June. (Figure 2, lowest image)

That is to say, the PSEi 30’s performance was largely driven by concentrated trading volume in a select group of elite stocks.

Figure 3

Using the BSP’s portfolio flow data, July’s portfolio flows represented the largest since April 2022. (Figure 3, topmost image)

However, the larger point is that foreign money flows tend to chase the peaks of the PSEi 30.

In fact, foreign investments often surged during the culminating (exhaustion) phase of the PSEi 30’s upward momentum, a pattern observed since 2013.

Will this time be different?

It’s important to note that the BSP’s portfolio flows include foreign transactions in the fixed-income markets, but the size of these flows is relatively insignificant.

In a nutshell, the purported confidence brought about by foreign participation has been largely limited to the PSEi 30. 

III. PSEi 30 7,000: Primarily an ICTSI Show; Diverging PSEi 30 and Market Breadth

Does media sentiment resonate with the PSE’s market breadth?

In a word, hardly.

The PSEi 30 rose by 1.25%, marking its second consecutive weekly advance and its ninth increase in 12 weeks since this upside cycle began in the week ending June 28th.

This week’s rebound pushed its year-to-date returns to 8.88%.

While we have seen some substantial returns due to heightened volatility in some of the PSEi 30's underperformers, such as Converge (+10.5%), Aboitiz (+8.4%), and Bloomberry (+8.3%), it was the performance of the two largest market capitalization stocks, SM (+3.47%) and ICT (+2.75%), that drove this week’s free-float gains. (Figure 3, middle pane)

The PSEi 30’s average return was 1.03%. The difference between this figure and the index reflects distortions caused by free-float weighting.

Yet, the increasing volatility in the share prices of several PSEi 30 and non-PSEi 30 firms suggests the formation of miniature bubbles.

With a 17-13 score, decliners outnumbered gainers in the PSEi 30, indicating a divergence between market breadth and the headline index.

Despite reaching the “historic moment” of the PSEi at 7,000, market breadth continues to weaken. (Figure 3 lowest chart)

Declining issues have outpaced advancing issues for the second consecutive week, with the 69-point margin nearly double last week’s 37. Declining issues led the market in all five trading sessions.

Figure 4

Yet, the market capitalization weighting of the top five issues rose from last week’s 51.15% to 51.34%, primarily due to ICT’s increase from 10.83% to 10.99%. (Figure 4, topmost chart)

Or, 5 issues command over half the PSEi 30 price level!

This week’s pumping of the PSEi 30 pushed ICT’s share price to a record high of Php 418.6 on Thursday, September 12th. (Figure 4, middle graphs)

To put it another way, ICTSI has shouldered most of the burden in pushing the PSEi 30 to 7,000.

Additionally, ICTSI's rise has been supported by rotational bids of the largest banks, SM, SMPH, and ALI (the six largest), which is publicly shaped by media and the establishment narratives through the promotion of BSP and US FED easing as beneficial to stocks and the economy.

The public has been largely unaware of the buildup of risks associated with pumping the PSEi 30, driven by a significant concentration in trading activities and market internals

The market breadth exhibits that since only a few or a select number of issues have benefited from this liquidity-driven shindig, the invested public has likely been confused by the dismal returns of their portfolios and the cheerleading of media and the establishment.

IV. PSEi 30 Rose to 7,000 on Depressed and Concentrated Volume 

Does the market’s volume corroborate the media’s exaltation of the PSEi reaching 7,000?

Succinctly, no.

To be sure, main board volume surged by 22%, increasing from an average of Php 4.9 billion to this week’s Php 5.9 billion. (Figure 4, lowest image)

However, main board volume remains substantially lower than the levels observed when the PSEi 30 previously reached the 7,000-mark.

Figure 5

Moreover, despite a 4.2% monthly surge in August that pushed year-to-date returns (January to August) to 6.94%, the eight-month gross volume fell to its lowest level since at least 2012. (Figure 5, topmost visual)

That’s in addition to the disproportionate share weight of over 80% carried by the top 20 issues on the main board volume, as noted above.

Incredible, right?

But there’s more. 

The main board volume consists of:

-Client-order transactions

-Dealer trades (usually day trades)

-Cross-trades (trades from clients in the same broker)

-Done-through (intrabroker/broker subcontract) trades 

Last week, the top 10 brokers controlled 53.84% of the main board volume, averaging 56.75% since the end of June.

Or, concentration in trading activities has also been reflected in the concentration of broker trades.

The point is, what you see isn’t always what you get.

Main board (and gross) volume doesn’t necessarily reflect broader public participation.

The sharp decline in direct participation by the public in 2023 underscores this reality. The PSE’s active accounts comprised only 17.6% of the 1.9 million total accounts in 2023—the lowest ever. (Figure 5, middle image)

Instead, trades within the financial industry have played a significant role in the PSE’s overall turnover.

For instance, in Q1 2024, the BSP noted that claims of Other Financial Corporation (OFC) on the other sectors "grew as its investments in equity shares issued by other nonfinancial corporations," and also “claims on the depository corporations rose amid the increase in its deposits with the banks and holdings of bank-issued equity shares”

Have OFCs been a part of the national team? OFCs include bank subsidiaries, public and private insurance and pension firms, investment houses, et.al. (BSP, 2014)

Why would the PSE’s volume endure a sustained decline if there has been significant savings to support the alleged increase in public confidence?

Historic? Hyperbole. 

V. Why Ignore the Impact of the Flagrant Manipulations of the PSEi 30? 

Finally, why would everyone discount, dismiss, or ignore the brazen "pumps-and-dumps" and "pre-closing price level fixing" at the PSE?

In the last five days, managing the index level involved early ICTSI-fueled pumps, aided by frenetic rotational bids on the other top five to six market caps. (Figure 5, lowest images)

After surpassing 7,000-level intraday, the local version of the "national team" dumped their holdings—using the 5-minute pre-closing float—onto unwitting foreign and retail buyers.

Despite this, the PSEi 30 managed to close above the 7,000 level during the last two days—albeit on low volume, with negative market breadth and concentrated trading activities.

Still, does everyone believe that the mounting distortions in the prices of (titles to) capital goods will come without consequences for the financial markets and the real economy?

What happened to the army of analysts and economists? Has the fundamental law of economics escaped them?

Or does the management of the PSEi 30 levels represent part of the establishment’s manipulation of the Overton Window?

Sure, the mainstream media has been so desperate to see a "bull market" that they describe a 19-month high as a "historic moment."

However, much of today’s media reporting seems to be more than mere cheerleading: genuine journalism has been sacrificed in favor of copywriting for vested interests paraded as news. 

VI. The Unannounced "Historic Moments" 

But the so-called "Historic Moment" has manifested in many unpopular and unannounced forms.

Let us enumerate the most critical ones: 

First, systemic leverage, consisting of PUBLIC DEBT plus TOTAL bank lending, has reached Php 28.515 trillion as of July 2024, accounting for 113% of the estimated 2024 NGDP!  Public debt servicing has also reached unparalleled levels!

Second, Q2 public spending, the financial industry’s net claims on the central government (NCoCG), and the banking system’s held-to-maturity (HTM) assets have also reached all-time highs.

Third, the banking sector’s business model transformation—from production loans to consumer loans—has been unprecedented.

Fourth, the savings-investment gap has reached a significant milestone.

Fifth, PSE borrowings, led by San Miguel’s Php 1.484 trillion, have also reached historic highs.

Sixth, the money supply (M1, M2, and M3) relative to GDP remains close to its record highs in Q1 2021.

Figure 6

Seventh, the BSP’s asset base remains near the record high attained during the pandemic bailout period (as of June 2024.) (Figure 6 topmost chart)

While there are more factors to consider, have you heard any media or establishment mentions or analyses of these issues?

Don’t these factors have an impact on the "fundamentals" of the PSE or the economy?

Or are we expected to operate under a state of "blissful oblivion," or the blind belief that "this time is different?" (The four most-deadliest words in investing—John Templeton)

It not only fundamentals, the current phase of the market cycle also tells a different story than the consensus whose primary focus is on a "return to normal" phase. (Figure 6 middle and lowest graphs)

Good luck to those who believe that the PSEi 30’s 7,000 level signifies a bull market or a historic moment.

____

References

The OFCs sub-sector includes the private and public insurance companies, other financial institutions that are either affiliates or subsidiaries of the banks that are supervised by the BSP (i.e., investment houses, financing companies, credit card companies, securities dealer/broker and trust institutions), pawnshops, government financial institutions and the rest of private other financial institutions (not regulated by the BSP) that are supervised by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Jean Christine A. Armas, Other Financial Corporations Survey (OFCS): Framework, Policy Implications and Preliminary Groundwork, BSP Economic Newsletter, July-August 2014, bsp.gov.ph