Infographics: Whoops, How Did the Media and Pollsters Get the Election So Wrong?

Pursuant to my previous post: Here's more on how media and surveys got the elections so wrong:

From the Visual Capitalist:

The day before the 2016 US Presidential Election, most pollsters and statistical models had pegged Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at greater than 90%.

However, as we noted yesterday, the consensus view is not to be trusted in a post-Brexit world.

Here’s what went wrong:

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

We looked at the predictions made by 12 major newspapers and pollsters the day before the election, to see where they went wrong.

For Florida and North Carolina, the pollsters were slightly less reckless. The Associated Press correctly had the Sunshine State as “leaning red”, while the Huffington Post saw North Carolina ultimately voting Trump.

After this and the Brexit polling disaster, the media is sure to be much more cautious with their models going into the next big political event.

 The lesson here is to have an independent mind.