Charts of the Day: US Restaurant Recession

Writes Shelly Banjo at the Bloomberg's Gadfly:

New unit growth among restaurant chains has outpaced population gains in the U.S. for years, boosting supply at a time when consumers are pulling back on restaurant spending, according to a recent presentation from research firm Hedgeye.

Restaurant sales growth across the industry hasn't been positive since April, raising fears of an impending "restaurant recession." To keep customers coming in, chains are boosting discounts, even though labor and other costs are rising, and that's eating profits.

Meanwhile, consumers are increasingly dining at home, with food from grocery stores or meal-delivery kits from companies such as Blue Apron and Hello Fresh. Underscoring this shift in preference, Darden said to-go orders and catering rose by 20 percent in the latest quarter from a year earlier, making up 11 percent of sales.

Online sales help margins because they tend to be higher-priced orders and require less labor -- although they deprive Darden of check-boosting alcohol sales. Darden said it would keep pushing online ordering and that it was experimenting with delivery services. 

Writing on the wall for the global "consumer economy"?